Originally Posted by
MissElizabeth87
Well first, Bush doesn't affect Oil prices-OPEC does. Yes, you can make the argument that they are raising them due to the war in the Middle East, and I can see where that's merited but it's really kind of speculation. The people who actually run OPEC aren't going to come out and say "Well, we're pissed you're here, so we're raising prices".
Economics are cyclical. I did not say I believe that Bush has done a GOOD job, I just believe we really can't tell right now. And I saw this information-about the whole 8 years bit-first in an econ textbook I used almost 4 years ago (which was then 1 year old), and again in a different economic book, with a different slant entirely-that was written 1 year ago. I don't always believe every single thing that I read, but when I find that two different books agree on a point when they disagree in many other places, I am very inclined to believe it. But-with the whole cyclical thing-inflation, like recession-is also cyclical... I believe it's like... the economy goes up-and then the dollar starts going down in value-which leads to a recession-which eventually leads to the dollar being worth more (due to people having to spend less)-and then the economy starts going up again. That's the way I understood it at least.
Now, with "Clinton's surplus", by what I've learned and believe, "his" surplus was not his doing. And it was him who spent through most of it-not including what has been spent on the war in the middle east. I don't want to start a huge debate about that point in particular-I'm just saying that it follows with the line of logic I have been using. But honestly, what I have read-again, in multiple places-the earliest we are going to see the influences of policy is 6 years, and that is rather rare. It is usually more like 8.
But! I could very well be wrong, and you all could be right. I'm just paraphrasing books-I'm definitely no economist.