Climategate

[leo9]

Quote:

I believe it was me that brought up that theory of the mini ice age in the next 10-20 years, and i watched a two hour Geographic program, and i have no doubt that the Scientists and oceanographers were telelling the truth as they see it. Is it because it goes against the global warming theory, that is getting certain peoples backs up that you cannot get it to sink in. It has taken years of green peace and save the earth organisations to spread the news, and now that everyone has jumped on the band wagon, no one wants to believe there is another theory. If you believe the scientists in the global warming because they are of great inteligence and learning, then why dont you believe the others, are they inferior and just mad?

Scientists make mistakes. Even brilliant scientists make mistakes. Newton believed in alchemy just as sincerely as he believed in gravity. Sir Fred Hoyle, whose theory that new species are created by virusses from space I quoted before, is a noted astronomer with some major contributions to cosmology.

The history of science as popularly taught gives the impression that someone comes up with a theory and that's it, it goes into the textbooks as a Law. They leave out the long process whereby the theory is tested by the rest of the scientific community, its reasoning examined, its predictions tested, before it is accepted by a majority of those who know the subject. There are usually some holdouts. A physicist said "Once we believed that light was waves, now we believe it is particles. The reason we all believe it is particles is that those who believed it was waves have died."

Popular history also leaves out that there are almost always competing theories. When Newton put forward his theory of gravitation, Descartes - a mathematician of equal standing - was advancing a theory that gravity was caused by whirlpools in the ether. Scientists didn't choose Newton's theory because they liked his politics (French scientists certainly didn't), but because it made clear predictions which clearly came true. Science is a communal work as well as a work of individual geniuses, and the job of the community is to sort out which genius is right.

Sometimes the test of the predictions takes time. The Theory of Relativity had to wait years for a solar eclipse to test the prediction that gravity bends light rays: when that was shown to be true, most sceptics came around. AGW had to wait decades for enough observations of the slow changes in atmospheric CO2 and air temperature to accumulate to convince the scientific community: and, as ever, there are holdouts. There would be even if the oil industry weren't pouring money their way, that's the nature of science.

As for mini Ice Ages, it's certainly the case that the Gulf Stream is weakening, and that if it fails completely it would have grave consequences for Europe and North America. That is one of the consequences of AGW which has been predicted as a possibility for decades and seems to be coming true. But the fact that AGW may freeze you and me doesn't alter the globe warming up overall. That's why they call it climate change: because the effects will be different in different places.

Have you ever had your car radiator freeze, and so the engine overheats? What would you say to a guy who said "Look, the engine's boiling, that can't be caused by freezing"?

[DuncanONeil]

Popular history also leaves out that there are almost always competing theories. When Newton put forward his theory of gravitation, Descartes - a mathematician of equal standing - was advancing a theory that gravity was caused by whirlpools in the ether. Scientists didn't choose Newton's theory because they liked his politics (French scientists certainly didn't), but because it made clear predictions which clearly came true.
Sometimes the test of the predictions takes time. The Theory of Relativity had to wait years for a solar eclipse to test the prediction that gravity bends light rays: when that was shown to be true, most sceptics came around. AGW had to wait decades for enough observations of the slow changes in atmospheric CO2 and air temperature to accumulate to convince the scientific community:

Do you even understand what a "theory" is? A theory is not proven. Were that the case it would not be a theory!

As for mini Ice Ages, it's certainly the case that the Gulf Stream is weakening, and that if it fails completely it would have grave consequences for Europe and North America. That is one of the consequences of AGW which has been predicted as a possibility for decades and seems to be coming true.

Yes is it not interesting that Global Warming can cause us to freeze? They did not change the term to be more accurate, it was because they then can dismiss things like an inconvenient cooling (like the last 12 years). I also find it telling that the AGW crowd prefer to start their little experiment after the completion of the Little Ice Age of the 19th century.
At least you admit that AGW is not a fact in the last sentence

But the fact that AGW may freeze you and me doesn't alter the globe warming up overall. That's why they call it climate change: because the effects will be different in different places.

Again there is the primary reason that the title of this favorite disaster epic has been changed. To deal with the Inconvenient Truth that the planet is not following their game plan.

[/QUOTE]

[Thorne]

[QUOTE=DuncanONeil;835804]

Do you even understand what a "theory" is? A theory is not proven. Were that the case it would not be a theory!

Actually, in scientific terms, a theory is an hypothesis which has been shown, through testing and repeatability, to be consistent with observed reality. In other words, it's as close to 'fact' as you can get. The theory of relativity has been shown, through observation and experimentation, to be consistent with reality. The theory of gravity has been shown repeatedly to conform to observed phenomena. In science you don't get much better than a theory.

At least you admit that AGW is not a fact in the last sentence

I'm not sure that AGW would even qualify as a valid theory, since there seems to be so much scientific controversy over it. At best it may be classified an hypothesis, but I doubt that it has reached the validity of a theory.

[leo9]

[QUOTE=Thorne;835822]

Do you even understand what a "theory" is? A theory is not proven. Were that the case it would not be a theory!

Actually, in scientific terms, a theory is an hypothesis which has been shown, through testing and repeatability, to be consistent with observed reality. In other words, it's as close to 'fact' as you can get. The theory of relativity has been shown, through observation and experimentation, to be consistent with reality. The theory of gravity has been shown repeatedly to conform to observed phenomena. In science you don't get much better than a theory.

I've often been struck by the similarities of style between AGW deniers and creationists, but I never expected to see this particular creationist specialty repeated here - "You call it a theory, that means it's not proved, ha ha!"

It is a depressing thought that the most highly educated culture in history, with more universities and more people in study than ever before, might walk cheerfully off a cliff because a majority of its citizens don't know or don't care about the basic principles of scientific method.

I'm not sure that AGW would even qualify as a valid theory, since there seems to be so much scientific controversy over it. At best it may be classified an hypothesis, but I doubt that it has reached the validity of a theory.

The comparison above is apt, because there is as much controversy about it as there is about evolution. Which is to say that the theory of the basic mechanism long ago passed enough empirical tests to satisfy the majority of specialists, but there remains a very large area of argument about exactly how and where that mechanism is being expressed, and there also remains a small group who, for ideological reasons or simple conservatism, can't accept the proofs that convince the rest: and by dishonestly conflating these two groups, it is possible to create the impression for outsiders that scientific opinion is divided.

The UEA's work is a case in point. What they were working on was not the basic principle of climate change, which they and all their peers take as long proved, but the detailed questions of exactly how and where and how fast the changes will happen: so even if every word of their reports were proved to be false, it would only change the details of policy. But the deniers constantly spin it as though the basic theory were being disproved, in the same way that creationists point to the faking of Piltdown Man as if it disproved the entire theory of human evolution.

[Thorne]

[QUOTE=leo9;836269]

I've often been struck by the similarities of style between AGW deniers and creationists, but I never expected to see this particular creationist specialty repeated here - "You call it a theory, that means it's not proved, ha ha!"

It is a depressing thought that the most highly educated culture in history, with more universities and more people in study than ever before, might walk cheerfully off a cliff because a majority of its citizens don't know or don't care about the basic principles of scientific method.

The comparison above is apt, because there is as much controversy about it as there is about evolution. Which is to say that the theory of the basic mechanism long ago passed enough empirical tests to satisfy the majority of specialists, but there remains a very large area of argument about exactly how and where that mechanism is being expressed, and there also remains a small group who, for ideological reasons or simple conservatism, can't accept the proofs that convince the rest: and by dishonestly conflating these two groups, it is possible to create the impression for outsiders that scientific opinion is divided.

The UEA's work is a case in point. What they were working on was not the basic principle of climate change, which they and all their peers take as long proved, but the detailed questions of exactly how and where and how fast the changes will happen: so even if every word of their reports were proved to be false, it would only change the details of policy. But the deniers constantly spin it as though the basic theory were being disproved, in the same way that creationists point to the faking of Piltdown Man as if it disproved the entire theory of human evolution.

I think we are in agreement, here. Like evolution, global warming is about as sure as can possibly be, the two theories agreed upon by virtually all qualified scientists. The mechanisms for both, however, are not so clear. In the area of evolution, survival of the fittest still remains classified more as an hypothesis, with some increasingly serious problems, but evolution still remains as a confirmed theory. Similarly, AGW is still being argued in the scientific circles, but global warming itself is virtually uncontested.

Among qualified scientists. The wishful thinking and ugly rhetoric of the political pundits have no place in the science of climate, just as the silly fairy tales and pulpit pounding of the biblical literalists have no place in the science of evolution.