Quote Originally Posted by DuncanONeil View Post
And do not forget that the models that are used to predict the future are merely programs written to tinker with the raw data input to produce a result.
We do not know what the tinker rules are, or even the raw data input.
The models are developed from historical data, then run through historical scenarios to insure they match up with actual climate conditions. If they do not, then the programs are "tinkered with" to correct any variations. The data remains the same, only the models are changed. Once they do an accurate job of "post-dicting" climate conditions, they are allowed to run into the future. There are many different models, using many different data sets. All are showing a marked average increase in global temperature. There will be some warming trends and some cooling trends, lasting several years sometimes. But the low temperatures in the cooling trends are not as low as they have been historical, and the high temps in the warming trends are slightly higher than historical. The average temperature is definitely rising.

And the raw data is there to be studied, if you want it. The problem is, the whole damned thing is so complex that, without a lot of study and experience the average person cannot easily understand that data. Even among the experts, the interpretation of the data and the conclusions gathered from the models can vary significantly. But the trend is still upwards.

As for the current supposed cooling trend, remember that the sun has just been going through a sunspot minima period, one which lasted longer than expected. Now, it seems, the sunspots are beginning to return, which will probably mean another warming trend. With a peak temperature higher than the last trend's peak.