Quote Originally Posted by ian 2411 View Post
Quote:

I believe it was me that brought up that theory of the mini ice age in the next 10-20 years, and i watched a two hour Geographic program, and i have no doubt that the Scientists and oceanographers were telelling the truth as they see it. Is it because it goes against the global warming theory, that is getting certain peoples backs up that you cannot get it to sink in. It has taken years of green peace and save the earth organisations to spread the news, and now that everyone has jumped on the band wagon, no one wants to believe there is another theory. If you believe the scientists in the global warming because they are of great inteligence and learning, then why dont you believe the others, are they inferior and just mad?
Scientists make mistakes. Even brilliant scientists make mistakes. Newton believed in alchemy just as sincerely as he believed in gravity. Sir Fred Hoyle, whose theory that new species are created by virusses from space I quoted before, is a noted astronomer with some major contributions to cosmology.

The history of science as popularly taught gives the impression that someone comes up with a theory and that's it, it goes into the textbooks as a Law. They leave out the long process whereby the theory is tested by the rest of the scientific community, its reasoning examined, its predictions tested, before it is accepted by a majority of those who know the subject. There are usually some holdouts. A physicist said "Once we believed that light was waves, now we believe it is particles. The reason we all believe it is particles is that those who believed it was waves have died."

Popular history also leaves out that there are almost always competing theories. When Newton put forward his theory of gravitation, Descartes - a mathematician of equal standing - was advancing a theory that gravity was caused by whirlpools in the ether. Scientists didn't choose Newton's theory because they liked his politics (French scientists certainly didn't), but because it made clear predictions which clearly came true. Science is a communal work as well as a work of individual geniuses, and the job of the community is to sort out which genius is right.

Sometimes the test of the predictions takes time. The Theory of Relativity had to wait years for a solar eclipse to test the prediction that gravity bends light rays: when that was shown to be true, most sceptics came around. AGW had to wait decades for enough observations of the slow changes in atmospheric CO2 and air temperature to accumulate to convince the scientific community: and, as ever, there are holdouts. There would be even if the oil industry weren't pouring money their way, that's the nature of science.

As for mini Ice Ages, it's certainly the case that the Gulf Stream is weakening, and that if it fails completely it would have grave consequences for Europe and North America. That is one of the consequences of AGW which has been predicted as a possibility for decades and seems to be coming true. But the fact that AGW may freeze you and me doesn't alter the globe warming up overall. That's why they call it climate change: because the effects will be different in different places.

Have you ever had your car radiator freeze, and so the engine overheats? What would you say to a guy who said "Look, the engine's boiling, that can't be caused by freezing"?