US Lockerbie bomber investigation

[Thorne]

Does anybody here know if anyone else has ever lived significantly longer than the doctors prognosticated?

I don't know about the doctors, but my mother always used to say that I wasn't going to make it to 13. Almost 50 years later and I'm still going strong!

But seriously, how much of that 3 month prediction was based on the quality of care he would receive in prison, versus the quality of care he can get on the outside? Especially if the Libyan government is paying for that care? Just the emotional and psychological boost from being released would have impacted his health.

[IAN 2411]

One other thing i was told, that there was not a cure, but there was a way to hold the disease from spreading by taking steroids. Though it never stopped the outcome of the painful death.

Be well IAN 2411

[js207]

But seriously, how much of that 3 month prediction was based on the quality of care he would receive in prison, versus the quality of care he can get on the outside? Especially if the Libyan government is paying for that care? Just the emotional and psychological boost from being released would have impacted his health.

At least one of the other doctors who had been asked the same question noted at the time that there was really no way to have any confidence in any prognosis. MMI seemed sceptical about the cherry-picking of medical reports, but also noted that if the allegation were really unfounded Salmond would have tried to refute it - it was reported at the time that they had been shopping around for a doctor willing to put their name to the three month prognosis they needed as the pretext for release, with several other doctors confirming they had been asked but couldn't give the prognosis wanted. I've seen that prognosis described as both "speculative" and "foolhardy" by a specialist in prostate cancer - and indeed the Prison Service's own report, which was the official basis for the release, noted that the specialists consulted refused to give such a prognosis - but conveniently, an unnamed GP said "a three-month prognosis is now a reasonable estimate for this patient"; another surgeon who specialised in prostate cancer later said the government had "misrepresented the medical evidence" and "chose to disregard the advice of specialists and release al-Megrahi on the opinion of one doctor, who we now know was not a specialist".

Looks like the 'cherry-picking' statement is pretty much rock-solid, which is why it's been so widely reported without any attempt at rebuttal by Salmond or anyone else: all they can do is shelter behind the one non-specialist doctor who said what they needed him to and try to deflect criticism of that flimsy basis.

At the time, thinking the stated prognosis was probably fairly close to reality, it seemed poetic justice that the Libyan insistence on a UK prison rather than a US one might have resulted in Megrahi serving a much shorter life sentence than he would otherwise (prostate cancer is very proactively screened for in the US, with statistically much better outcomes as a result). In fact, in Libya he has been treated with Abiraterone, an anti-cancer drug developed in London ... but not yet available to NHS patients. Whether Megrahi would have received better care than other prisoners had he continued serving his sentence is an open question, I think: it is known that Gaddafi was paying for doctors in addition to the NHS provision (including, by at least one report, £200/hr to the one who provided the convenient 'three month' figure other doctors rejected) but I'm not sure if they could have administered the Abiraterone in Scotland as they have been in Libya.

[MMI]

Looks like the 'cherry-picking' statement is pretty much rock-solid, which is why it's been so widely reported without any attempt at rebuttal by Salmond or anyone else: all they can do is shelter behind the one non-specialist doctor who said what they needed him to and try to deflect criticism of that flimsy basis.

Based on your post - and I'm in no position to challenge any of it - it could look like cherry picking. Whether it was or not, I cannot say.

However, the guy does now seem to be at death's door, and calls for him to be returned to prison, in Scotland or USA are pointless to my mind.